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Agribusiness Predictions for 2016

Posted By Roy Duncanson, Saturday, 13 February 2016
https://youtu.be/5G0ndS3uRdo

 

Agribusiness Predictions for 2016

 

Global Summary

 

For Consumers:

Population Up

Food Prices Up

 

For Producers:

Population Down

Profit Margins Down

 

 

1. Overall Summary

 

Globally, although patchy, this will be the last decade where globalisation is perceived as a threat to current generations. In future decades, and with future generations, globalisation will just be accepted as a normal part of doing business. This will occur despite some rise in protectionism to prevent decline of in-country agribusiness development (i.e. until their domestic agribusiness sectors can ensure local food security.

 

World food prices will rise in response to increasing population and declining agronomic resources. The overall increase will be reduced by energy cost falls and weaker economic activity.

 

2. What will increase?

  • Agribusiness industry representation fragmentation (the world will see increasing numbers of producer and food-oriented consumer groups forming, often with opposing policies)
  • Brands, importance of
  • Chinese emigration (people and capital)
  • City-base urban gardens, particularly vertical gardens
  • Commencement and slow rise of pluralism will begin to challenge partisanship as peoples seek the ‘best of all worlds’.
  • Desertification
  • Emerging skills-based digital TV channels enable sharing (leap frogging to smart phones)
  • Environmental Enforcement
  • Food prices
  • Food provenance verification
  • Food security
  • Global and in-country cold chains (progress and developing countries)
  • Global food chains (GFC) as proportion of international trade
  • Grower-to-Consumer direct food sales (rise of farmer markets in most countries)
  • Internet speeds and mobile telephony (although coverage will continue to the patchy)
  • Land evictions in developing countries
  • Locavore advocacy, but not practices
  • On-line food purchasing (developed world)
  • Organic farming
  • Private sector agricultural industry research, development, and extension
  • Rise of online universities and vocational training institutions (across borders)
  • Rise of pluralism in international policy forums
  • Rising African agribusiness in response to early stage exploitation of its vast agronomic potential
  • Supply of ‘Ag industry-ready’ labour (all levels)
  • Traceability technology, although mostly backward integration types

 

3.   What will remain the same?

  • A reconfiguring of agricultural faculties and vocational training institutions in response to rising demand for food and fibre (i.e. traditional models not filling skills gaps)
  • Branding of agricultural produce stalls due to lack of innovation
  • Basic industry bulk frieght infrastructure
  • Food wastage
  • Foreign lobbyists activity by multi-national agribusiness firms in developing countries (already amongst highest in the world)
  • Government support for Ag R&D will continue to decline (as global shift to private sector continues). This poses major challenges for all countries
  • Natural resource management investments
  • On-line food purchasing
  • Obesity Rates
  • Starvation (climate based). Starvation may increase, but the world now responds more quickly
  • Trade barriers (patchy, pending roll out of more multi-lateral and bi-lateral agreements)
  • UN, progress against sustainable development goals
  • Wholesale food markets (Developing world)

 


4. What will decrease?

 

 

  • Bio-security (public sector funding cuts)
  • Business confidence (until global economic trends are stable)
  • Farm-gate margins (particularly in developed countries)
  • Food labelling (new disrupting technologies, Multi-lateral trade agreements impacts)
  • Fossil Fuel Energy Costs (preceding fall in costs of renewable energy sources)
  • Global agricultural policies will slightly increase protectionism in response to rise of Global Food Chains (i.e. to protect in-country agribusiness)
  • Global supplies of P, N, & K (and some crucial trace elements)
  • Government transparency and accountability
  • High value agricultural lands
  • Profit margins at the farm gate (mostly in the developed world)
  • Public Sector Agricultural Industry Research, Development, and Extension
  • Wholesale food markets (Developed world)

Tags:  Agribusiness Predictions 

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